ASEAN's Dual Game Between China's Export Surge and Global De-risking

Introduction

For a long time, ASEAN has been a major beneficiary of China's rapid growth and global supply chain integration. However, as China's industrial overcapacity problem becomes increasingly prominent and a large number of cheap goods flood into the regional market, ASEAN is facing unprecedented strategic pressure. In 2023, China surpassed the United States and the European Union to become ASEAN's largest export market, but China's export growth to ASEAN far exceeds ASEAN's export growth to China, leading to a trade deficit expanding to over $190 billion. At the same time, developed economies such as the US and Europe are promoting a "de-risking" strategy, requiring ASEAN to reduce its dependence on the Chinese supply chain. This has put ASEAN in a dual game: it must use Chinese investment and trade to promote its own industrialization, prevent local industries from being overwhelmed by low-priced imports, and maintain market access with the West.

Four Reshaping Trends

China's overcapacity is reshaping ASEAN's economic landscape through four interrelated trends:

1. Surge in Chinese Imports and Trade Imbalance

China's exports to ASEAN increased by another 12% in 2024, while ASEAN's exports to China increased by only 2%. Indonesia and Thailand are particularly affected: Chinese imports increased by nearly 18% and 14% respectively, while their exports to China fell by 4% and 5%. In the past, China's exports were mainly intermediate goods, which helped ASEAN process and re-export; but now the share of final consumer goods has increased, directly impacting local manufacturing. Indonesia's textile industry laid off 80,000 workers in 2024, and another 280,000 jobs are at risk; similar phenomena have occurred in Vietnam and Thailand, where cheap Chinese goods flood in through cross-border e-commerce, squeezing the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises.

2. The Double-Edged Sword of Deep Supply Chain Integration

The integration of ASEAN and China's supply chains continues to deepen, with China's share of ASEAN trade rising from 12% in 2010 to 20% in 2023. ASEAN's overall trade deficit is offset by its surplus with the rest of the world (especially the United States), indicating that this integration partially depends on US final demand. However, if US demand slows down or restrictions on China are passed on to ASEAN, the vulnerability becomes apparent. Chinese companies are setting up large-scale factories in ASEAN, which is both investment and capacity transfer, potentially making ASEAN a re-export channel for 'Made in China' and attracting more scrutiny from Western markets.

3. Local Industries Under Squeeze

Low-priced Chinese goods not only impact traditional industries such as textiles and furniture, but also begin to affect emerging fields such as new energy and electronics. Indonesia has imposed safeguard tariffs on finished product imports (such as textiles and ceramics), while Thailand and Vietnam have also strengthened anti-dumping investigations. However, ASEAN countries generally lack effective trade remedy tools, and free trade agreements (ACFTA, RCEP) provide limited space for protecting domestic industries.

4. External Pressure and Policy Dilemma

The US tariffs on China (e.g., 100% on electric vehicles, 50% on photovoltaics) have prompted some production capacity to shift to ASEAN, but also put ASEAN under suspicion of 'origin laundering'. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and supply chain due diligence further increase compliance costs. ASEAN countries are caught in a dilemma between balancing Chinese capital and Western rules.

Policy Responses and Regional Coordination面对复杂局面，东盟需采取多维度策略：

• 强化区域贸易防御机制：统一反倾销、反补贴和保障措施规则，提高对中国进口激增的响应速度。
• 加速供应链多元化：在RCEP框架下深化区域内部贸易，同时加强与日本、韩国、印度等伙伴的产业合作，减少对单一来源依赖。
• 提升产业竞争力：通过数字化转型、技能培训和基础设施投资，增强本地企业抗冲击能力。
• 加强对外沟通：与美国、欧盟等经济体就产能过剩和去风险议题展开对话，避免被单边措施误伤。

结论

中国产能过剩短期内可能为东盟带来廉价中间品和投资，但长期看，贸易逆差扩大、本土产业萎缩和外部合规风险将侵蚀区域发展基础。东盟必须从共同体视角出发，协调政策、深化一体化，在激烈的大国博弈中寻找可持续的发展路径。未来五年，东盟能否在吸收中国红利的同时保持经济自主性，将决定其“亚洲工厂”地位的最终成色。