Indonesia's mobile service revenue will reach $12.1 billion by 2030: Data consumption and 5G drive the transformation of ASEAN's largest digital economy

As the largest economy and most populous country in ASEAN, Indonesia's mobile communication market evolution not only impacts its own digital transformation but also has profound implications for regional digital economy integration, manufacturing relocation, and consumer market upgrade.

According to the latest forecast by GlobalData, Indonesia's mobile service revenue will grow from USD 10.2 billion in 2025 to USD 12.1 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.4%. This growth is primarily driven by mobile data services, with data revenue expected to expand at a CAGR of 4.8%, further increasing its share of total revenue by 2030.

Surge in data consumption and 5G penetration

The report indicates that the average monthly data usage on Indonesia's mobile networks will jump from 20 GB in 2025 to 30.3 GB by 2030. The popularity of online video, social media, and other data-intensive applications is the main driver. Meanwhile, the commercial deployment of 5G services is accelerating. The Indonesian government has set a target to increase 5G coverage to over 30% by the end of 2030, providing clear investment guidance for operators.

Although 4G will remain the technology with the highest subscription volume in 2025, its market share will gradually decline as users migrate to 5G. The adoption of 5G benefits from cheaper terminal devices, broader network coverage, and optimized tariff packages. Operators are gradually shifting voice and SMS revenue to data plans by bundling free voice minutes, and it is expected that traditional voice and SMS revenue will continue to decline.

Telkomsel leads, competitive landscape evolves

Indonesia's state-owned telecom operator Telkomsel is expected to maintain its leading position in mobile subscriptions until 2030. As of March 2026, its 4G network has covered over 97% of the population; by mid-2025, it had deployed more than 2,500 5G base stations in 56 cities. However, as competitors such as XL Axiata and Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison accelerate their 5G investments, market concentration may undergo subtle changes.

Significance from an ASEAN regional perspective

The expansion of Indonesia's mobile market has multiple implications for the development of ASEAN's digital economy:

1. Digital infrastructure upgrade: The widespread deployment of 5G networks will support applications such as the Industrial Internet, smart cities, and autonomous driving, providing a communication foundation for Indonesia's manufacturing upgrade (particularly in electronics, automotive, and textile industries). This is crucial for attracting multinational corporations seeking a "China+1" strategy.

2. Cross-border data flow and trade facilitation: Stronger mobile networks will facilitate digital services trade between Indonesia and other ASEAN countries such as Singapore and Malaysia, driving the penetration of regional e-commerce platforms (e.g., Shopee, Lazada) and fintech services.3. Activation of the Consumer Market: The growth in data consumption means that digital content, social commerce, and mobile payments will gain a broader user base. Indonesia has a population of 270 million, with a high proportion of young people. The popularization of mobile internet will accelerate the integration of the regional consumer market, laying the foundation for a unified ASEAN digital market.

4. Regional Supply Chain Synergy: The reliability of mobile services affects manufacturing decisions to set up factories in Indonesia. For example, global electronics OEMs and automakers have strict requirements for real-time data connectivity in factories. Improvements in Indonesia's telecommunications infrastructure will further consolidate its position as a manufacturing hub in ASEAN, forming differentiated competition with Vietnam and Thailand.

Challenges and Prospects

Despite the optimistic outlook, Indonesia's mobile market still faces pressure on investment returns. Operators need to balance expanding 5G coverage with maintaining profit margins, especially in remote areas. In addition, spectrum allocation policies, data center localization regulations, and restrictions on foreign investment may affect the pace of capital investment.

From a regional perspective, Indonesia's mobile data growth trend is similar to that of other ASEAN countries (such as the Philippines and Vietnam), but Indonesia's market size and policy support make it a "bellwether" for observing ASEAN's digital transformation. If Indonesia can successfully achieve its 5G coverage target by 2030, it will drive the improvement of digital connectivity across the entire ASEAN supply chain.

Overall, the growth of Indonesia's mobile service revenue is not only a performance story for the telecommunications industry but also a key chapter in the construction of the ASEAN digital economy community. Investors and policymakers should pay attention to changes in the data consumption structure and the implementation of 5G application scenarios, as these will determine whether the region can occupy a favorable position in the global industrial restructuring.